To maintain a population at its current level, the population’s TFR must be 2.1. A mother and father must each be replaced, and a certain number of additional births must occur to make up the shortfalls due to infant mortality and other casualties. The first chart shows changes in growth rate to a certain population from 1985 to 2025. The second chart shows the world’s total fertility rate. If the trend continues as shown, when is the total fertility rate likely to reach replacement level?


You need to mentally project and extend the trend line. The line shows a decline, but that decline is slowing. Where the line ultimately ends is immaterial. You need to project when it would reach the 2.1 level. The line also shows the data for 2015, 2020, and 2025. For those dates the TFR hasn’t yet reached replacement levels, so Choices (A), (B), and (C) are incorrect. Therefore, your best answer is Choice (D).

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